AITakeover Tracker
31%medium risk

Nursery and Greenhouse Managers

SOC: 11-9013.01 · Job Zone 3 (Medium preparation)

Plan, organize, direct, control, and coordinate activities of workers engaged in propagating, cultivating, and harvesting horticultural specialties, such as trees, shrubs, flowers, mushrooms, and other plants.

Medium RiskEst. full displacement: 20412051high confidence
Raw task score: 43.8Protective discount: 29.0%20 tasks scoredModel: v1.0_gemini-3-1-pro-preview_20260228

AI Impact Summary

Nursery and Greenhouse Managers faces moderate AI displacement risk with a score of 31/100. Significant displacement is estimated between 2041 and 2051. Of 20 analyzed tasks, 3 are highly automatable, particularly in routine_cognitive. Strong protective factors — including social intelligence, creativity, or regulatory barriers — significantly reduce effective risk.

Wage & Employment (2024)

Median Wage

$87,980

per year

Mean Wage

$97,240

per year

Employment

6K

workers

Wage Range

$51,700 - $156,530

10th - 90th pct

Wage Distribution

$51,700Median: $87,980$156,530

Protective Factors

Total protective discount: 29.0%

Skill Analysis

AI-Vulnerable Skills (6)

Information Ordering5%

High reliance on Information Ordering is a risk area. Consider developing complementary AI-resistant skills to maintain value.

Mathematics10%

High reliance on Mathematics is a risk area. Consider developing complementary AI-resistant skills to maintain value.

Reading Comprehension10%

High reliance on Reading Comprehension is a risk area. Consider developing complementary AI-resistant skills to maintain value.

Mathematics10%

Mathematics is AI-vulnerable but has moderate importance in this role. AI tools may handle this; focus on higher-value skills.

Memorization5%

Memorization is AI-vulnerable but has moderate importance in this role. AI tools may handle this; focus on higher-value skills.

Programming15%

Programming is AI-vulnerable but has moderate importance in this role. AI tools may handle this; focus on higher-value skills.

AI-Resistant Skills (7)

Coordination70%

Coordination is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

Instructing75%

Instructing is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

Complex Problem Solving75%

Complex Problem Solving is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

Negotiation85%

Negotiation is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

Social Perceptiveness90%

Social Perceptiveness is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

Persuasion80%

Persuasion is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

Manual Dexterity80%

Manual Dexterity is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

AI-Augmented Skills (5)

Critical ThinkingJudgment and Decision MakingActive LearningWritingSystems Analysis

Recommendations

Skills to Develop

These skills are at risk from AI automation. Nursery and Greenhouse Managers professionals should diversify beyond them.

  • Information Ordering

    High reliance on Information Ordering is a risk area. Consider developing complementary AI-resistant skills to maintain value.

  • Mathematics

    High reliance on Mathematics is a risk area. Consider developing complementary AI-resistant skills to maintain value.

  • Reading Comprehension

    High reliance on Reading Comprehension is a risk area. Consider developing complementary AI-resistant skills to maintain value.

  • Mathematics

    Mathematics is AI-vulnerable but has moderate importance in this role. AI tools may handle this; focus on higher-value skills.

  • Memorization

    Memorization is AI-vulnerable but has moderate importance in this role. AI tools may handle this; focus on higher-value skills.

Skills to Leverage

These human-centric skills remain difficult for AI to replicate. Double down here.

  • Coordination

    Coordination is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

  • Instructing

    Instructing is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

  • Complex Problem Solving

    Complex Problem Solving is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

  • Negotiation

    Negotiation is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

  • Social Perceptiveness

    Social Perceptiveness is AI-resistant — strengthening this skill provides durable career protection.

Tools to Adopt

AI can amplify these skills. Learn the tools that augment rather than replace your work.

  • Critical Thinking

    Critical Thinking will be enhanced by AI. Develop expertise in using AI tools for this skill to increase productivity.

  • Judgment and Decision Making

    Judgment and Decision Making will be enhanced by AI. Develop expertise in using AI tools for this skill to increase productivity.

  • Active Learning

    Active Learning will be enhanced by AI. Develop expertise in using AI tools for this skill to increase productivity.

  • Writing

    Writing will be enhanced by AI. Develop expertise in using AI tools for this skill to increase productivity.

  • Systems Analysis

    Systems Analysis will be enhanced by AI. Develop expertise in using AI tools for this skill to increase productivity.

Task Breakdown

20 tasks analyzed

Manage nurseries that grow horticultural plants for sale to trade or retail customers, for display or exhibition, or for research.

Non-Routine AnalyticalAI: 45Risk: 45.0Time: 9%

Identify plants as well as problems such as diseases, weeds, and insect pests.

Non-Routine AnalyticalAI: 70Risk: 55.0Time: 8%

Tour work areas to observe work being done, to inspect crops, and to evaluate plant and soil conditions.

Non-Routine AnalyticalAI: 40Risk: 43.0Time: 8%

Assign work schedules and duties to nursery or greenhouse staff, and supervise their work.

Non-Routine InterpersonalAI: 30Risk: 27.0Time: 8%

Determine plant growing conditions, such as greenhouses, hydroponics, or natural settings, and set planting and care schedules.

Non-Routine AnalyticalAI: 65Risk: 53.0Time: 6%

Apply pesticides and fertilizers to plants.

Routine ManualAI: 50Risk: 53.0Time: 5%

Hire employees, and train them in gardening techniques.

Non-Routine InterpersonalAI: 20Risk: 23.0Time: 5%

Select and purchase seeds, plant nutrients, disease control chemicals, and garden and lawn care equipment.

Routine CognitiveAI: 80Risk: 81.2Time: 4%

Determine types and quantities of horticultural plants to be grown, based on budgets, projected sales volumes, or executive directives.

Non-Routine AnalyticalAI: 65Risk: 53.0Time: 6%

Explain and enforce safety regulations and policies.

Non-Routine InterpersonalAI: 20Risk: 23.0Time: 4%

Position and regulate plant irrigation systems, and program environmental and irrigation control computers.

Routine CognitiveAI: 85Risk: 83.2Time: 4%

Inspect facilities and equipment for signs of disrepair, and perform necessary maintenance work.

Non-Routine ManualAI: 15Risk: 15.0Time: 5%

Coordinate clerical, record-keeping, inventory, requisitioning, and marketing activities.

Routine CognitiveAI: 85Risk: 83.2Time: 6%

Prepare soil for planting, and plant or transplant seeds, bulbs, and cuttings.

Routine ManualAI: 50Risk: 53.0Time: 5%

Confer with horticultural personnel to plan facility renovations or additions.

Non-Routine InterpersonalAI: 20Risk: 23.0Time: 3%

Cut and prune trees, shrubs, flowers, and plants.

Non-Routine ManualAI: 15Risk: 15.0Time: 4%

Provide information to customers on the care of trees, shrubs, flowers, plants, and lawns.

Non-Routine InterpersonalAI: 45Risk: 33.0Time: 4%

Construct structures and accessories such as greenhouses and benches.

Non-Routine ManualAI: 10Risk: 13.0Time: 2%

Negotiate contracts such as those for land leases or tree purchases.

Non-Routine InterpersonalAI: 15Risk: 21.0Time: 2%

Graft plants.

Non-Routine ManualAI: 30Risk: 21.0Time: 2%

Community Assessment

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Career Planning

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